Gold in 2025: Soaring to ₹1 Lakh or Crashing by 40%? Experts Weigh In

Recent fluctuations in global markets, driven by persistent financial uncertainty and the ongoing effects of former U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policies, have led to significant movements in gold prices. On Friday, gold prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) hit record highs, with the June 5 futures contract for 10 grams reaching ₹93,736.

As of 9:40 AM, the same contract was trading at ₹93,495 per 10 grams, reflecting a 1.59% gain. The surge underscores gold’s status as a safe-haven asset, especially during times when equity markets are marked by heightened volatility. As investors shift away from risky equities, demand for gold has risen, pushing prices upward.

Will Gold Cross ₹1 Lakh? Experts Disagree

While some analysts foresee continued upward momentum, others remain cautious. Several market watchers, including Metaladers, predict that gold could breach the ₹1 lakh mark within this year. However, more conservative voices suggest a potential short-term correction, with estimates of a 38–40% decline from current highs.

Ryan McIntyre, Senior Portfolio Manager at Sprott Asset Management, attributes the current price rally to robust central bank purchases, global geopolitical tensions, and lingering uncertainty over Trump-era tariff strategies.

Colin Shah, Chairman of Kama Jewellery, said that a ₹1 lakh price target could materialise by 2025, particularly if the U.S. Federal Reserve proceeds with expected interest rate cuts. Lower interest rates often reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, boosting investor demand.

Market Leaders Weigh In

Kishore Narne, Director & Head of Commodities at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, told CNBC-TV18 that gold prices could reach $4,000–$4,500 per ounce, asserting that once a price target is set, it's only a matter of time before it is achieved.

In contrast, Chintan Mehta, CEO of Abans Financial Services, views the current rally as an extension of existing trends rather than the start of a new bullish cycle. Mehta argues that most bullish factors have already been factored into current pricing, making a ₹1 lakh target in the near future less likely.

Bearish Outlook From U.S. Analysts

Some analysts are forecasting a correction. John Mills, a market strategist at U.S.-based Morningstar, predicts that gold prices could fall to $1,820 per ounce—a drop of roughly 38–40% from the current market value of around $3,080 per ounce. Mills points to increasing supply, waning demand, and a saturated market as key reasons for the expected pullback.

Conclusion

While gold continues to serve as a preferred safe-haven asset amid ongoing economic and geopolitical instability, its future trajectory remains uncertain. Whether prices will continue their climb or face a sharp correction is a question that divides market experts, making it a space worth watching closely in the months ahead.